THE Philippine government is drafting a strategic blueprint to manage the country’s economic shift toward a more sustainable and climate-resilient future, under the Philippine Just Transition Framework (JTF).
The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), through the Just Transition Technical Working Group, said the framework sets out the guiding principles and institutional foundations needed to support a fair transition across policy, regulation, and investment as the economy adjusts to global low-carbon trends.
The 28-page draft was developed based on consultations with government agencies, labor groups, employers, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and private sector stakeholders after it was released for public comments from Feb. 3-9.
The multi-agency roadmap defines the national mission as a “transformative, people-centered shift to a low-carbon, energy-secure, and climate-resilient economy that prioritizes equity, inclusivity, and balance” throughout the transition process.
The policy document cautions that a business-as-usual approach — one that fails to keep pace with the global low-carbon transition — could reduce projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth by up to three percentage points and increase unemployment by 2040.
To address these risks, the framework evaluates three potential development pathways and concludes that a managed “just transition” would deliver the most favorable economic outcomes for the Philippines.
Based on assessments by the Climate Change Commission and the DENR, following this pathway could raise real GDP by more than 16% by 2040.
The draft further projects that a coordinated transition strategy could reduce poverty levels, lifting more than 12 million people above their current economic status by 2050 compared with present trends.
“A just transition requires a whole-of-economy, whole-of-society, and whole-of-government approach and can only be achieved through the meaningful and effective participation of all stakeholders,” the document read.
The technical working group notes that small and medium enterprises, which employ a large portion of the workforce, face a significant “capacity gap” and limited ability to invest in green technologies, leaving them at heightened risk during the transition to low-carbon industries without targeted support.
To address potential labor displacement, the roadmap proposes the creation of an “Early Warning System” to identify at-risk workers and direct them toward reskilling and upskilling programs. The JTF estimates that these targeted interventions could increase female labor force participation by 24 percentage points by 2050 compared with a decarbonization-only scenario.
The framework also addresses public transport modernization, underscoring the need to protect the livelihoods of jeepney drivers and operators through concessional financing and technical assistance.
The 16-agency working group notes that successful implementation will depend heavily on securing stable and predictable access to international climate finance and technology. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking