THE Department of Agriculture (DA) warned foreign rice suppliers that a strong domestic harvest could upset any plans they may have of raising prices when shipments to the Philippines resume early next year.
The DA said in a statement that it expects scaled-down demand for imported rice early next year after new production assessments pointed to a harvest that will still approach 2023 records, even after the impact of late-year calamities.
In the statement, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said foreign suppliers should not take advantage of the Philippines’ return to the global rice market, noting that some suppliers appear to be expecting renewed large-volume purchases after a temporary import ban expires.
Mr. Laurel was quoted as saying that the government will not allow foreign suppliers to exploit the country’s food-security mechanisms. He urged importers to diversify their sourcing to ensure more stable and predictable supply arrangements.
“While we value our partnerships with traditional suppliers, food security is paramount, and diversifying our sources is vital,” Mr. Laurel said.
The DA is projecting import volumes for the first quarter of 2026 to be “substantially lower” than previous estimates, following positive assessments of the 2025 crop.
It now expects 2025 output of palay (unmilled rice) at 19.61 to 19.89 million metric tons (MMT), near the 2023 record of 20.06 MMT. This is also higher than the 19.09 MMT reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority in 2024.
The DA said the revised range is slightly lower than the previous target of 20.46 MMT after downgrades to fourth-quarter estimates. However, according to the DA, updated field validation shows that domestic production suffered smaller-than-expected setbacks even after several typhoons traversed key rice-growing areas.
Mr. Laurel cited improved farm preparedness, better disaster-response coordination, and the timing of storms that did not hit during critical phases of the growing period.
The DA said it is preparing an adjusted import matrix to guide private traders once the country lifts its moratorium on rice imports in January.
The DA said the framework will be calibrated to safeguard farmgate prices and prevent predatory import practices as the country reenters the international market. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel